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Validation & methodology

Measured against ground truth. Not asserted.

Every claim is reproducible from operator data, scored against a documented, labeled test suite, then re-measured per well against the operator's own drilling reports.

What is measured

Lead time, scored against your drilling reports.

How far ahead Vogter anticipates the developing event, defined the same way on the labeled test suite and on your data, so the evaluation result is directly comparable to the published figure.

1 hr
Maximum lead time
The furthest ahead of the event's documented onset in the drilling report that Vogter anticipates it.
The published figure is measured on the labeled test suite. Your evaluation reports the same on your own section: the number you decide on is the number measured on your data.
How the model is anchored

Physics-anchored, measured, explainable.

01

Physics-informed

Physics constraints bound what the model can conclude. It is not pattern-matching alone: the call has to be consistent with drilling mechanics.

02

Measured on real wells

Lead time is scored against operators’ own drilling reports: the model is tuned to measured outcomes, not assumptions.

03

Evidence on every call

Contributing channels and the “why this call” rationale ride with every classification, hash-chained into an exportable audit bundle.

The labeled test suite

Documented scenarios, graded before the well.

A library of documented, labeled scenarios across the mechanism families the platform classifies. Every release is scored against them before it ships, so a change in any call is caught first.

  • Circulation losses: mild, severe, total
  • Stuck pipe: pack-off, wellbore instability, geometry, differential sticking
  • Equipment: bit wear, motor stall, pump degradation
  • Labeled onset timestamps from drilling reports
  • Suite composition published on request
Scoring on your data

The evaluation, step by step.

A standard evaluation: one finished section from an offset well, replayed and scored against your own drilling reports.

1

You provide

A finished section from an offset well, with the drilling reports for that section.

2

We replay

Vogter runs the section as it was drilled and classifies risk as the patterns develop, with no hindsight.

3

We score

Lead time, each call matched to the report's documented events.

4

You decide

A measured read on value, on your data, before any wider commitment.

Score it on one of your sections.

Name an offset well. We will report lead time against your own drilling reports.